Just sitting in the “Building Mobile Apps Using HTML / JavaScript / CSS” talk by @jonathanstark here at OSCON. This room is packed out. There was an Android talk in here previously from some Google guys and the room was only abut 2/3 full. There are 350+ developers in here (and more outside who can’t get in) all eager to hear about Mobile Webapp development. What great evidence that developers are excited about this platform.

Photo credit: Rob Pongsajapan.

Last week I had the pleasure of attending the Lift conference and helping to run a workshop on user privacy. This was a workshop with a difference. My colleague Franco Papeschi came up with the idea of a privacy “game” (“Denopticon“) which would help participants explore the issues around privacy, personal information and data sharing. The game started with participants filling out an ID card with personal information about themselves. Participants earned points for finding out and recording personal information from others and additional points for fulfilling various secret missions. It was enormously fun and I hope to help run it again at other events. But besides being fun, it helped the participants, and the moderators, think about the key issues around user privacy.

This was against the backdrop of enormous upheaval in the area of user privacy on the Web. I remember when privacy on the Web used to boil down to “turning off cookies.” Now-a-days if you turn off cookies, you might as well use your computer as a doorstop, and anyway the privacy conversation has so moved on. In a world where more and more of our communication is happening through social networks and socially connected applications, the whole concept of privacy is being turned on its head, to the extent that some (such as Christian Heller) are claiming that we are now living in a “post-privacy” world. And, of course, Google’s Eric Schmidt is on record saying “If you have something that you don’t want anyone to know, maybe you shouldn’t be doing it in the first place,” which (if he truly believes this) I think betrays an almost pathological misapprehension about the human condition.

The truth is, we need privacy, as a society. Anyone who claims we don’t is (forgive me) either terribly naïve, stupid, or a sociopath. Privacy, and a reasonable expectation that some of our actions and communications are and will remain private, is a social lubricant that allows for healthy exercise of denial and other mechanisms that keep us sane. Anti-privacy pundits are quick to reply that “the kids” don’t care about privacy – but this notion doesn’t bear up under the facts. (For evidence, an article from today’s NY Times reporting on the increasing awareness of youth to privacy issues.) In fact, there seems to be a backlash against the “private is public” mentality which has led to over-sharing and social networking fatigue. (Do I really care that you’ve won the medal of the badge of being the mayor of the Duncan Donuts at 33rd and 8th? Maybe that’s something better kept private.)

Over-sharing as promoted by servers like Foursquare may be annoying but it’s basically harmless. You may be opening yourself up to stalking or having your house burgled but that’s a choice you’re willing to make for the benefits that social sharing bring, right? OK, but what happens when you’re not just making that decision for yourself? What happens when your sharing impacts your family, your sexual partner, your children? Emerging usages of  social networks will require more trustable, private environments. With their ability to share structured data, social networks could be a great environment to interact with your stock broker or financial advisor. What about health service communications – such as your blood sugar levels or the results of your AIDS test? What about parent-teacher communications? The list goes on – all of these intrinsically private types of communication could benefit from the rich communication mechanisms that social networks bring to bear. But people would (rightly) be reluctant to use Facebook or other existing social networks in these ways.

Unfortunately, although social platforms like Facebook are adding richer privacy controls, there remain problems both with the implementation of these controls and in making them understandable to regular users. I think Facebook has actually made a lot of progress in making privacy options visible and usabile – at least on their Web site. In fact, my personal trust level of Facebook’s privacy mechanisms has increased enough that I’ve begun sharing family photos and other information with family members on the platform. I’ve been very frustrated by the lack of privacy controls on their mobile clients and mobile web site, but it seems to me they are on the right track. There are challenges on the horizon, though.

One challenge will emerge from the wealth of availability of data that is opening up to Web developers. With a few lines of JavaScript code, a Web application or widget can access your location (via the Geolocation API). Soon, that information will expand to capturing your camera image or digging into your address book. Although browser and web runtime makers are building in privacy controls, are they working and are they the right ones? These are the issues we’ll be exploring at an upcoming W3C workshop I’ll be co-chairing on privacy and device APIs.

Another challenge is going to be implementing trustable privacy in the post-Facebook world. How would my family photos use-case work if my family members were not all on Facebook  but were members of a series of federated social networks? These are some of the problem spaces we’ve been exploring in the W3C Social Web Incubator. The OneSocialWeb project is building an open source platform that uses XMPP to bring some of these ideas to life.

One thing is clear: privacy is becoming a key industry topic and a flashpoint in the intersection between mobile, social and  the Web. The common wisdom is shifting away from the idea that “people don’t care about online privacy” which is good, but it throws a spotlight on the mess that privacy on the Web has become. Cleaning up that mess is going to take some effort.

For a development project I’ve been working on for the past few months (“Agora” – more on that soon), we have largely abandoned this “stand up” style and moved all of this daily status sharing into Google Wave. This was partially necessitated by the fact that the developers and designers we have working on this project are in a few different physical locations, but the results have been surprising.

I was sceptical at first that Wave would be a rich enough environment, but it has really enabled a kind of rich collaboration that.

Developers can post screenshots of UI mockups or code samples or error codes and then generate discussion and get feedback on these. Commenting on the Wave enables people to talk about priorities. And as some of our developers are not native english speakers, using the Wave combined with web translation has enabled them to converse more easily and clearly than via voice or real-time chat.

I approached this with an attitude of “Wave must be good for something” and I can honestly say I am a convert. It has really shown its strength in helping to manage a distributed small-team development project. And while it hasn’t eliminated the need for meetings, it has certainly reduced their frequency, and (I think) boosted productivity.

Prediction #1: I have seen the future, and it is Android. Or rather, the Android model is going to be the model that “wins out.” Right now, especially for those who tote iPhones around, that might be difficult to see or understand. The iPhone seems like a device which embodies all the mobile 2.0 ideals I first wrote about in 2006. It provides access to a wealth of applications and services. It’s easy to use. It’s connected. It has created new product categories (apps) and new routes to market. But, as iPhone detractors often point out, it’s a closed ecosystem. I submit that no matter how “insanely great” the iPhone is, the ecosystem that Apple has created around it cannot scale. So, we are back to another prediction I made, at 2008′s Future of Mobile conference: Android will be to the iPhone what the PC was to the Mac. Why? User choice. You can download and install an app on an Android phone without buying it from Android Market. You can download it directly, or from an alternative app store such as GetJar. I predict 2010 will be the year that Android apps will begin to rival iPhone apps – maybe not in terms of sheer numbers, but in terms of consumer and developer mindset. This will be the year in which “download our Android App” buttons will join “download our iPhone App” buttons on sites across the Web. Don’t believe me? Check out this interesting data point (take a look at the “customer satisfaction” graph – I predict Android and iPhone will change places by the end of the year).

Prediction #2: At the same time, richer functionality (enabled by the HTML5 platform and APIs such the geolocation API) within to the browser and web runtimes will enable the creation of a new class of WebApp  (and Web Widgets) that will work interchangeably between Android, iPhone and other emerging smartphone platforms. The result of this trend will bolster the growth of Android as consumers will begin to perceive that they don’t have to buy iPhone to get a rich mobile Web experience.

Prediction #3: The Social Web will rise. This is hardly a surprising prediction coming from me. But what will it mean for the (mobile) industry and for consumers? We have already seen a rise of social apps and webapps on mobile, such as Brightkite, Yelp, Rummble and Foursquare: applications that take advantage of unique features of the mobile platform to bring real-time social connection into new places and to new user communities. We will start to see these applications weave together using emerging social web standards such as the so-called open stack and activity streams. For users, it will mean easier and  more seamless social sharing, especially for long-tail social apps. The social web will make it easier for people to choose the right tool for the job without being as constrained by “where their friends are.” The mobile industry, however, is generally more used to thinking about scale and market-dominating players (yes, e.g. Facebook), so the tools the mainstream mobile industry puts in front of people will continue to orbit around these market-dominating social networks. (Ironically, the Facebooks of the world very much understand the social web trend so are actually on their way towards dismantling their walled gardens just as mobile industry players are building more functionality on top of them.) Meanwhile, predictions #1 and #2 will mean that people will have more and more choices and will increasingly go “off-piste” and choose their own social tools and applications.

It all adds up to 2010 being the year of user choice: choice of handset, choice of platforms, choice of social networks, choice of apps.

Another highlight was Bruce Lawson’s talk on HTML5 which got a vigorous round of applause from the (800+!) attendees.

Anyway, Carsonified’s badges, which I gushed over in 2007, have also evolved as the company has evolved. See a picture of my badge in-line. Attendees wrote in their own badges this time, which no-doubt saved them some money but also enabled everyone to customize. I took advantage of some “brain” handy stickers to write in tags for topics I’m currently thinking about.

The fact that Amazon has recanted and said “sorry, we’ll never do it again” is kind of beside the point. They have taught people the object lesson that this is possible. The goods they thought they were buying are in fact a license, and that license can be revoked at any time. If the Bittorrent era has taught us anything it is that consumers, when faced with untenable choices, will take the power into their own hands and circumvent these barriers put in place to stop them. Likewise, when given a fair shake, consumers will gladly pay for digital content. The general industry trend is towards openness, but it strikes me that we need a new consumer compact around expectation of digital goods – one that swings the pendulum back in the consumers’ favor. Otherwise the absolute power of the rights holders will continue to corrupt them, absolutely.

So be it! If you want to find out more about these topics and others vitally important to the future of the mobile and Web industries, come join me in Barcelona on June 18^th and 19^th for Mobile 2.0 Europe. Day one will be a developer day featuring presentations, tutorials (and unstructured sessions) on key software technologies and innovations in the mobile and mobile Web space and day two will be more strategic, focusing on disruptive innovation in the mobile space and featuring startups and innovators from across the spectrum. It’s going to be an exciting two days.

Betavine (Vodafone R&D’s developer community portal), with some help from the inimitable folks at Carsonified, have laucnhed a new blog dedicated to Mobile Widgets and Web Apps.  The idea is to get as much information out as possible about what Betavine and Vodafone are doing in the widget space and what’s going on with the latest widget standardization efforts. We’ll also be featuring information on upcoming events, like the W3C widget camp at WWW2009 in Madrid next week and the upcoming Vodafone Mobile Widget Camp in Amsterdam on May 2nd. We’ll also be posting on Twitter on @MobileWidgets on Twitter. Stay tuned!